CONFIDENTIAL
PERSONAL
FM IRAQREP
TO IMMEDIATE FCO
TELNO 2
OF 111430Z MAY 03
INFO IMMEDIATE BAGHDAD, UKMIS NEW YORK, WASHINGTON
INFO IMMEDIATE
, NO 10
, DFID, MODUK,
PERSONAL FROM SPECIAL REP FOR IRAQ FOR:
NO 10: POWELL, MANNING, CAMPBELL, RYCROFT
FCO: PS/SOS, PS/O'BRIEN, PUS, RICKETTS, EHRMAN, CHAPLIN, CHILCOTT
MOD: PS/SOS, CDS, CGS, PUS, WEBB, PIGOTT
DFID: PS/SOS, PUS, BREWER, MILLER, AUSTIN
SUBJECT: PERSONAL: IRAQ: WHAT'S GOING WRONG?
SUMMARY
1. A Baghdad First strategy is needed. The problems are worst
in the capital, and it is the one place we can't afford to get
it wrong. But the troops here are tired, and are not providing
the security framework needed. We need a clear policy on which
Ba'athists can return, a more concerted effort on reconstruction,
and an imaginative approach on the media. For all this, money
needs to be released by Washington. The clock is ticking.
DETAIL
2. Four days in Iraq has been enough to identify the main reasons
why the reconstruction of Iraq is so slow. The Coalition are
widely welcomed, but are gradually losing public support.
3. Garner's outfit, ORHA, is an unbelievable mess. No
leadership, no strategy, no co-ordination, no structure, and
inaccessible to ordinary Iraqis. Bremer's arrival is not a day
too soon, and he needs to be radical. Garner and his top team
of 60-year old retired generals are well-meaning but out of their
depth. Tim Cross is widely seen as the only senior figure
offering direction to the many able individuals here from the US,
Britain and Australia. Garner points to a glass half-full, but
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SECURITY
5. No progress is possible until security improves. Crime is
widespread (not surprising as Saddam released all the criminals
last autumn). Car-jackings are endemic, with the cars driven to
Iran for sale. Last week the Ministry of Planning was re-kitted
out ready to resume work; that night it was looted again. The
evening air is full of gunfire. There is still a climate of
fear on the streets, because of the level of crime, and that is
casting a shadow over all else.
6.
7. The military culture in the capital needs to change before
their replacements (another heavy armour division) arrives.
We, the Brits, do not have all the answers, but an operational
UK presence in Baghdad is worth considering, despite the obvious
political problem. Transferring one of our two brigades is
presumably out of the question, but one battalion with a
mandate to deploy into the streets could still make an impact.
CGS saw the problem last Friday and can offer more professional
advice. There are US units who could also
contribute if there is any gap in coverage to be filled.
8. Re-forming the Baghdad police has begun, but needs to be
accelerated. I visited them today and the work is being pushed
forward by an excellent team of US military police and two
civilian advisers (one a Brit). It is beginning to happen
but is not getting the priority it needs. The police need
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on.
the trade and health ministries, at Baghdad University and so
Several political leaders I have seen say a line should be drawn
at the "firqa" level of the Ba'ath Party and all those at that
level and the three above should be excluded, about 30,000 in all.
This would represent between five and ten per cent of total party
membership. But it is still a lot of people and may be one level
too many, at least for now. Whatever, we need to set out a clear
policy, plus a process for dealing with contested cases, even
though it means starting again in some institutions.
RECONSTRUCTION
10. With security and credible de-Ba'athification will come the
chance for durable reconstruction. Power is back, though the
network is not robust. Water is running but is not potable. 40% of
Baghdad's sewage is said to be pouring into the Tigris untreated,
contributing to disease downstream. Garbage is piling up on the
streets, and will be a health hazard here. A GSM mobile phone
system is desperately needed in the capital as communications are
dire. And so on. Bechtel, who have the main contract for
re-connecting essential services, are moving far too slowly.
They need to swamp Baghdad with engineers and skilled labour.
They will have no difficulty in finding local workers.
11. Quick results projects are also needed to show there is
progress on the way. We need visibly successful projects,
however small: schools and hospitals re-opening, new bakeries,
food distribution points. That is not a substitute for long
term development, but it would meet genuine needs and also the
political requirement. DID and USAID could play a role here,
as well as NGOs and the UN.
INFORMATION
12. Baghdad has no TV, and no newspapers apart from party
political rags. I was given two fliers yesterday by an Iraqi,
one calling for the assassination of all Ba'athists, the other for
the killing of all US forces. That, and rumour, are the only
information flowing. An ORHA TV project is due to get going next
week but its content will be tightly controlled by ORHA, and it
risks not being credible. I have pressed them, as a start, to
broadcast a Premier League game each day, but the Americans
don't yet get it.
13. More progress is being made with radio: the BBC (English
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gleefully point out). First, the US Administration are refusing to
release Iraqi money to pay salaries - even the $740m in cash found
here is being blocked (unlike the cash our troops found in Basra).
That on its own should be enough to pay salaries into 2004.
Second, early decisions are needed on salary levels and which
currency (dollars, Saddam dinars, or new Swiss dinars) should be
used. The actual decisions are less important than getting them
taken, so that a big information campaign can begin to distribute
back pay in mid-June.
15. There are hundreds of small problems needing attention
- petrol and cooking fuel distribution, paying farmers for
this season's harvest and so on. But the big five are as set
out above, and security is both the most important and the
most sensitive. There will be an instinct in Washington to
allow Bremer time to find his feet and reach his own conclusions.
But that will take another week or more - and the clock is ticking.
I will talk to him once he gets here, but will have to feel
my way at first. No harm if the ground in Washington can be
prepared.
16. I am reporting separately about politics.
Contact:
SAWERS
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